Diving freight charge per unit have inevitably lead to plummet carrier Q3 returns , and the outlook for the full twelvemonth is raw while next twelvemonth ’s expectations have sunk well below the waterline .
excitableness in carrier lucre is a concern , with Alphaliner reporting that Q3 carrier wave returns had diminished to 1.5 % , well below the 2019 average of 2.4 % , and with pre - Covid margins averaging -0.2 % in the ten years before 2020 , the carriers could be staring at a prolonged period of losses .
Such is the volatility in the market Q4 forecasts are often encompassing , unfocussed affairs , with Maersk , for deterrent example , augur anything from a US$ 970 million deprivation to a US$ 530 million gain . Similarly , Hapag - Lloyd expects anything from a US$ 600 million loss to a US$ 400 million amplification . ZIM , on the other hand , is abide by its stultification psychometric test , which find out a more than US$ 2 billion loss , expecting red of up to US$ 226 million to carry on into the final three months of the class .
agree to advisor Jon Monroe : " bearer executive are already sounding the alarm in third - after part earnings reports that 2024 might be a bloodbath . "
Avoiding any such atrocities will require carriers to manage content and trend costs substantially .
In ZIM ’s case , that has intend ordering liberal more efficient ships , but requirement is forecast , by most observers , to stay on at around half of capacity increase until 2027 . The Israeli carrier , however , is require , or hoping , that the market place will plow by the close of 2024 .
However , the larger ships will increase capacitance well as well as cut costs . Lower price , as executive frailty president and chief financial officer at ZIM Xavier Destriau conceded , will only be realized if the new vessels can be filled .
" The cost of operating a 15,000 TEU LNG ship is the same as operating a 10,000 TEU ship , so for the same monetary value , we have a 50 % increase in the potential intake in this service . So , providing we fill these ships , we get the benefits of the small monetary value , " Destriau told Container News .
Monroe believes , " What bechance in 2024 may be dependent upon the success of retail sales and BCOs destocking crusade . Expect retailer to be cautious about their ordering until they get a grip on their holiday cut-rate sale performance . "
However , he concede that the mindset is poor , quoting a recent Nielsen survey , which report that 57 % of consumer are hesitant to increase their spending this holiday season , and around 84 % of globose consumers are planning to cut back their spending .
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